With soybean production adjustments, projection for Brazil’s 2023/24 stocks is reduced

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Porto Alegre, December 18, 2023 – Owing to the irregular weather, the season for adjusting estimates for Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop has begun. On Friday, December 11, SAFRAS & Mercado revised its production estimate downward, mainly due to the lack of rain in Mato Grosso, the top producing state. As a result, some changes were made to the Brazilian supply and demand projection. The main one was the cut in the estimate for ending stocks.

Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to total 100 mln tons in 2024, repeating the volume indicated for 2023. In the previous report, released in early December, the projections were the same.

SAFRAS indicates the crushing at 54 mln tons in 2024 and 53 mln tons in 2023, with an increase of 2% between one season and the next. There was no change either from early December. SAFRAS indicates imports of 110 thousand tons in 2024, against 180 thousand tons in 2023.

For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 1%, reaching 163.577 mln tons. At the beginning of December, 166.724 mln tons were expected. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 157.7 mln tons, up 1% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks should rise 12%, from 5.237 to 5.877 mln tons. At the beginning of December, they were projected at 9.024 mln tons, which would represent an increase of 72%.

SAFRAS projects soymeal production at 41.45 mln tons in 2024, rising 2%. Exports are expected to fall 6% to 21 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.5 mln, 3% higher. Stocks are expected to rise 80% to 4.38 mln tons.

Soyoil production is expected to increase by 1% to 10.9 mln tons. Brazil must export 1.8 mln tons, down 16%. Domestic consumption should rise 8% to 9.3 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 13% to 4.5 mln tons. The forecast is for stocks to fall 28% to 460 thousand tons.

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