Porto Alegre, December 18, 2023 – The changes in exchange rate policy, imposed in the first days of Javier Milei’s new Argentine administration, will have a strong impact on the soybean export market in the coming months. The entire soybean complex can be affected, especially soymeal and soyoil, as the measure increases Argentina’s competitiveness in the international market.
The devaluation of the Argentine peso makes the country’s product cheaper, increasing competition with Brazil and the United States. This has already been reflected on the Chicago Board of Trade, with a decline in prices. In Brazil, regional premiums may be negatively impacted.
Furthermore, the exchange rate decision encourages Argentine growers to negotiate their stored soybeans with the industry and trading companies and export. All of this could “remove” a portion of Brazil and the United States from the export market in the coming few months.
Besides the good soybean production expected in Argentina in the 2023/24 crop, the country could regain first place in the world soymeal and soyoil exports, lost to Brazil last season. Our neighbor will once again have strength in the export market. It is important to follow the next steps of the new Argentine government, especially on the issue of retentions. The removal or reduction of Argentine export taxes could bring even more competitiveness to the country’s soy complex products.
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