Porto Alegre, July 29, 2026 – Soybeans continued to post firm gains during the week, supported by stronger demand for U.S. supplies and persistent weather concerns across key producing regions, while buyers in Brazil remained active in competing for limited available stocks.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) maintained a bullish tone as the market continued to monitor both improving demand prospects and the possibility that the USDA may lower U.S. yield expectations in upcoming reports.
Heat waves remain intense across much of the U.S. Midwest, while rainfall continues to be below ideal levels and unevenly distributed. Although major producing states such as Illinois and Iowa still maintain relatively favorable crop conditions, weather concerns have intensified in North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska, where yield risks are increasing.
Demand has also provided additional support to prices. Sales of the new U.S. soybean crop are running at nearly three times the pace recorded during the same period last year, with China remaining an important buyer.
For the old crop, cumulative U.S. export sales have reached 41.38 million metric tons, equivalent to more than 100% of the USDA’s July export projection. With several weeks still remaining before the end of the marketing year, the market expects the USDA to increase its export forecast and further reduce ending stocks.
Domestic demand in the United States also remains exceptionally strong. The USDA currently projects soybean crush at 72.121 million metric tons, but market participants believe the estimate could be revised higher following another robust monthly processing report from NOPA.
According to the latest NOPA data, U.S. processors crushed approximately 5.8 million metric tons of soybeans in June, maintaining one of the strongest processing paces on record. A higher crush estimate would further tighten the U.S. balance sheet and provide additional price support.
In Brazil, buyers continue competing aggressively for available soybean supplies. Exporters and domestic crushers remain active in the market, while producers maintain a firm negotiating stance and continue asking for higher prices.
Premiums remain exceptionally strong, with spot indications ranging from BRL 148 to BRL 150 per 60-kilogram bag on an FOB/FAS port basis. Firm basis levels have also continued supporting prices across several producing regions.
Even with the favorable pricing environment, commercialization remains relatively slow. Many producers are currently prioritizing second-crop corn sales, while those with stronger cash positions continue holding soybean inventories in anticipation of additional price gains.
Over the past month, soybean prices have advanced between 12% and 16%, significantly improving producer margins. The stronger market has also encouraged interest in forward sales for the 2026/27 crop, although volumes remain moderate as weather uncertainty continues to dominate expectations for next season’s global supply and demand balance.
THE AGRIBUSINESS ECOSYSTEM
FROM BRAZIL AND LATIN AMERICA
