Porto Alegre, September 9, 2026 – Soybeans remain under strong buying pressure on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with prices trading above US$ 13.00 per bushel, particularly in the 2027 contracts. This movement is becoming an important point of attention and an opportunity for the new Brazilian crop.
During the more typical harvest periods, especially between March and April, there is usually a significant concentration of grain flows, which tends to pressure prices in the physical market if there are no relevant production problems. Therefore, current levels represent a good opportunity for producers who still have volumes to sell, especially those who can take advantage of prices to lock in production costs, including through barter operations, given the exchange ratios observed recently.
On the exchange, there have still been no structural changes in fundamentals, and the market’s main focus remains on the actual size of the U.S. crop, whose harvest should begin shortly, normally from the second half of September onward. In the USDA’s latest report, U.S. soybean crop conditions declined by another 2 percentage points and are now well below the levels observed during the same period last year.
This movement caused some concern in the market, mainly because it highlights a divergence from the estimates presented by Pro Farmer. Therefore, further corrections to the size of the U.S. crop cannot be ruled out, a scenario that keeps U.S. carryover stocks at very tight, practically nominal levels.
In addition, there was another week of strong volumes of committed export sales for the new marketing year. Two points are important in this context. The first is a small negative adjustment to the old crop, bringing the 2025/26 projection to approximately 41.8 million metric tons, around 486 thousand metric tons above previous projections. There are still approximately 1.099 million metric tons to be shipped, a volume that should affect the accounting for the new crop.
This movement should result in some revision by the USDA. The Department may adjust old-crop carryover stocks or make changes to the new-season balance sheet, but some adjustment is expected, especially given the impact that China’s return has been having on the new U.S. crop balance.
Thus, the market’s main expectations are focused on what adjustments the USDA will make to the U.S. supply and demand balance. Some adjustment to Brazilian production also cannot be ruled out, especially now that the planting window is beginning to open in some regions, such as Paraná.
However, the most significant progress in planting should occur from mid-September onward, between September 15 and 18, particularly in Mato Grosso, as the sanitary break window allows. Naturally, producers are attentive and anxious about the opening of the weather window. The maps indicate good rainfall volumes between September and October, which could favor a faster advance in planting activities.
The main point of attention, however, remains from November onward. The models diverge, but there are indications of possible periods of lower rainfall volumes and higher temperatures associated with the effects of El Niño, which remains very present in weather projections.
In the domestic market, the week was marked by the continuation of the upward price movement. We continue to see the best levels at the ports, with indications testing R$ 162 per bag, supported by Chicago levels and premiums that remained relatively stable.
The decline in the dollar did not create major disparities in relation to domestic prices. Support from the CBOT was sufficient to keep the physical market firm, although few transactions were carried out in terms of volume. Soybean availability is already somewhat scarce in several regions.
Producers who still have soybeans available continue to pressure the market by holding back their product, seeking better levels and forcing buyers to raise their bids. On the other hand, buyers have also begun lowering their indications in some regions, leaving certain players well out of the market.
Thus, the current scenario is one of low liquidity, with more restricted available supply and sellers reluctant to release their stocks, while buyers are showing greater caution in their indications.
In the dollar market, the week was marked by strong political impacts. The recent scandals involving the relationship between the STF and the Vorcaro case altered market perception, which began to work with a more favorable view toward a possible transition or, in this case, change of government.
This movement brought the dollar from approximately R$ 5.20 to around R$ 5.10 in just a few days, while the Ibovespa posted strong gains. On the other hand, so far this has been a predominantly short-term shock.
Central Bank statistics still show a situation of significant fiscal imbalance. There were some positive adjustments in July results, with a surplus of approximately R$ 1.4 billion in the public sector and around R$ 11 billion in the Central Government. However, the accumulated 12-month result remains in deficit, at close to R$ 89.3 billion.
In addition, nominal interest on public debt has reached approximately R$ 1.15 trillion, while the accumulated nominal deficit over 12 months stands at close to R$ 1.239 trillion.
Thus, despite the improvement in short-term perception and the favorable movement observed in the exchange rate and stock market, the structural situation of public accounts remains extremely challenging, keeping the fiscal scenario as one of the main points of attention for the trajectory of the real.
THE AGRIBUSINESS ECOSYSTEM
FROM BRAZIL AND LATIN AMERICA
