Porto Alegre, September 24, 2026 – Soybean prices saw greater volatility during the week, but showed less directional movement on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). U.S. soybean sales remained strong, while the market awaited the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on September 24.
The meeting will not necessarily change the soybean trade scenario, but it could generate some market volatility. However, with the U.S. harvest advancing and expected to gain further momentum from late September onward, attention will increasingly turn to the actual size of the U.S. crop and the results coming from the fields. Production may not necessarily be as large as indicated by the latest WASDE.
The market may correct part of the accumulated buying, while funds, which have built extremely large long positions, could liquidate part of their holdings. Soybean meal prices have also drawn attention, with developments surrounding the EUDR potentially increasing demand for U.S. soybean meal imports.
As a result, soybean meal played a major role during the week, with very sharp fluctuations, although prices posted a strong correction in the latest trading session.
In Brazil, soybean commercialization remained very slow, with little change from the current scenario. Liquidity was extremely limited, as producers continued holding back supplies and trying to push buyers’ bids higher. With little reaction from buyers, however, the spread between the two sides widened further.
In addition, the domestic industry is largely covered through November. As a result, processors are avoiding more aggressive bids, even amid the significant rise recently observed in soybean meal prices.
At the ports, however, the market remains firm. Around 104 million metric tons are already accounted for between exports and commitments. Alternatives at the ports remain limited, while export parity continues strong, above BRL 160 per bag. Premiums have not declined and are unlikely to weaken, particularly as available supplies are expected to become even tighter.
The domestic market continues to show very strong basis levels, with several regions trading well above parity, although business remains limited. For the new crop, the week was more active, with producers advancing commercialization and better trading reported in Minas Gerais and Goiás.
Planting should now begin to take up more of producers’ attention as pre-planting and planting activities gain momentum.
Weather remains the main source of uncertainty. Paraná, where excess rainfall has been recorded, showed some slowdown, while Mato Grosso received no significant rainfall and continues to face dry and hot conditions. With the sanitary break period ending in late September, most regions will be able to make greater progress with planting.
Rainfall maps still indicate a favorable precipitation scenario for October, which could encourage planting progress from the Southeast northward. Concerns increase from November onward, however, with forecasts for the Center-West showing stronger characteristics associated with El Niño, including lower rainfall volumes in central areas and higher temperatures. For December, projections indicate an even more challenging scenario.
At this stage, weather problems remain an important risk for the Brazilian crop, although their magnitude is still uncertain. Investment levels are also lower, with reduced spending on technology, while fixed costs remain higher due to more expensive diesel and rising labor costs.
These factors do not necessarily translate directly into lower profitability, as selling prices can still offset part of the higher costs. However, yields will be a key factor for the season.
Therefore, although Brazil has the nominal potential to produce a soybean crop of 180 million metric tons, achieving such a robust volume could become more difficult if the weather scenario currently indicated for the final months of the year, particularly December, materializes.
