Porto Alegre, July 29, 2026 – The Brazilian corn market is seeking some recovery in prices and liquidity, supported by the international environment and exports. The risk of production losses in the United States always raises greater concerns regarding global supplies and prices. Several international factors are now in play, including drought in the United States, two wars, upcoming elections, and a stronger interest rate cut expected in August. In addition, the rush to use PIS/Cofins tax credits continues, with trading companies acting more aggressively in purchases, particularly in Mato Grosso. The measurement of the impact of weather conditions on the U.S. crop will indicate whether Chicago prices can remain supported. The intensification of the wars, attention to wheat, and the energy market are also relevant. Domestically, harvest is advancing, while concerns about the impact of El Niño on the 2027 second crop are growing, even though there is still no more serious indication of a problem. The market appears to be seeking higher prices, but exports need to advance for this to occur.
The second-crop harvest continues to advance, with some regions of Mato Grosso already nearing completion. Yields are high, large volumes of corn are being stored outdoors, and sales flows to processors and exporters remain strong. In the other states, harvest is advancing from the second half of July onward, but rainfall in Paraná and parts of São Paulo has again slowed the pace. Harvest is also progressing in Matopiba, where demand is being found from the Northeast, local ethanol plants, and now exports. However, business is advancing more effectively mainly when taxes are included.
Harvest is expected to continue through the end of August in most states. The concern now is where to store the harvested corn, the pace of commercialization, domestic and export demand, and prices. The market gained some room for improvement in regional price levels due to several indicators, including:
• Rainfall reached Paraná, parts of Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paulo, slowing the arrival of new-crop corn. However, rainfall will decrease, harvest will move forward, and the natural selling pressure caused by storage and liquidity needs will return;
• Gains on the Chicago Board of Trade generated expectations regarding a possible production loss in the United States and higher international prices, with a resulting improvement in domestic prices. Prices did improve somewhat, despite trading companies reducing premiums in Brazil. Levels, based on export registrations, range from R$65–66 per bag for August to R$70 per bag at the port for December and January;
• The rush to absorb the maximum amount of PIS/Cofins tax credits continues and remains highly aggressive in some states. In Mato Grosso, the week recorded transactions for October and November at R$49–52 per bag CIF including taxes, well above regular transactions at R$45–47 per bag CIF for the same shipment period. At terminals, prices ranged from R$57 to R$60 per bag CIF including taxes. These prices involving tax credits result in better prices for producers and are where the largest volumes have been traded. Business for the 2027 second crop has also begun to advance, with processors and trading companies bidding between US$9 and US$10 per bag CIF for June and July delivery. The consuming sector is concerned about the impact of El Niño on the 2027 second crop, and some hedging activity is already taking place in this regard;
• The exchange rate was the factor that surprised the domestic market during the week. The Brazilian real appreciated, strangely, even with losses in the Bovespa, reaching R$5.07 per U.S. dollar. This was an erratic movement during a tense week globally and amid greater risk for emerging markets. New tariffs on Brazil and a tense environment involving the wars were also present. Even so, the Central Bank acted to manage the exchange rate domestically. The stronger real neutralized part of the international price movement during the week. For this reason, port prices also failed to rise aggressively and did not provide strong domestic support;
Corn shipments in July reached 1.5 million metric tons, with nominations totaling 3.3 million metric tons, above July 2025. However, the entire second half of the year still remains ahead in terms of shipments. Combining actual shipments and nominations, 8.5 million metric tons are now committed. To reach 40 million metric tons, Brazil will need to ship 32 million metric tons by January. This is a substantial volume, and the country will need to maintain the same pace recorded in 2025 to reach this target. This is why gains on the Chicago Board of Trade and higher premiums at the Gulf of Mexico help promote South American sales, namely from Argentina and Brazil. In Argentina’s case, the line-up is already showing solid progress. Brazil will now need to show monthly shipments of 6 million metric tons or more beginning in August to demonstrate an accelerated shipment pace.
Holding back supplies in the interior could, at some point, contribute to limiting exports, particularly if domestic market prices remain well above port levels. The use of tax credits in both the domestic and export markets may accelerate shipments through December. However, this strategy disappears in January with the implementation of the tax reform, and prices will return to normal levels at ports and in the domestic market. For Rio Grande do Sul, for example, export sales for February and March reached R$72 per bag during the week, without tax benefits and based solely on the regular export parity calculation, following CBOT, premiums, and the exchange rate curve.
Attention to the international market, particularly the weather situation in the United States, together with the exchange rate curve and the pace of export shipments, remains the key factor for domestic market prices.
