Porto Alegre, April 23, 2026 – Soybeans ended the week under pressure on the Chicago Board of Trade, but stronger basis levels and a firmer Brazilian real-to-dollar exchange rate helped sustain prices in the domestic physical market.
The market posted significant losses after failing to attract enough buying interest above the US$ 12.00 per bushel level. Futures broke support around US$ 11.70 and moved closer to technical support levels near US$ 11.00 per bushel.
Despite the decline in Chicago, U.S. crop conditions remain largely favorable. Planting is nearing completion, field conditions are rated as excellent, rainfall has been adequate across most producing regions and there are no significant temperature concerns at this stage of the season.
The weakness in futures was driven less by weather and more by market positioning. Speculative funds continued reducing long positions, while concerns remain regarding the slow pace of U.S. soybean exports and the possibility of higher carryout stocks in future USDA revisions.
The absence of concrete signals from China regarding additional purchases of U.S. soybeans also weighed on sentiment. At the same time, Brazilian exports to China remain strong, reinforcing expectations that Chinese demand may remain concentrated in South America for a longer period.
Another factor pressuring the soybean complex was the decline in soybean meal prices, which approached US$ 313 per short ton during the week. Soybean oil also underwent position adjustments after crush margins reached historically elevated levels.
Although processing margins remain attractive, the market has started to correct part of the extreme profitability observed in recent months. Weak crushing margins in China and strong Brazilian soybean meal exports also contributed to the adjustment.
In Brazil, the holiday-shortened trading week saw basis levels strengthen considerably, helping offset part of the losses recorded in Chicago. At the same time, the U.S. dollar appreciated again and closed near BRL 5.15, providing additional support to domestic prices.
As a result, physical market prices remained relatively stable and even generated marketing opportunities, particularly for deferred payment contracts. Spot indications ranged between BRL 132 and BRL 134 per sack, while September export parity values reached between BRL 138 and BRL 140 per sack.
According to market participants, Brazilian soybean producers are already relatively well sold. The urgency to market large volumes has largely passed, and negotiations are expected to move at a slower pace in the coming weeks.
Attention is also beginning to shift toward the arrival of Brazil’s second corn crop, which should compete for logistical capacity and producer attention. This could reduce soybean offerings and widen the gap between buyer and seller price expectations.
Currently, export terminals remain focused on July shipment programs, while August positions are gradually gaining importance. Meanwhile, crushers are considered well covered through July and August, reducing immediate purchasing needs and contributing to a more balanced market environment.
THE AGRIBUSINESS ECOSYSTEM
FROM BRAZIL AND LATIN AMERICA
