Chicago soybean market recovers part of its losses

Porto Alegre, April 23, 2026 – Soybeans recovered part of the losses accumulated in recent weeks on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), while the market remained focused on expectations surrounding Chinese purchases of new-crop U.S. soybeans.

Trading was volatile throughout the week, although price fluctuations remained relatively limited. Even so, futures managed to rebound, with technical support becoming increasingly evident in the US$11.10 to US$11.20 per bushel range, depending on the contract.

One of the main features currently observed in the market is the spread between contract months. Chicago continues to display a normal contango structure, with deferred contracts trading above nearby positions, indicating that the market attributes higher value to future soybean prices despite currently pricing in a full U.S. crop.

Attention is also beginning to shift toward weather risks for Brazil’s next soybean crop. The possible development of a stronger El Niño event is gradually entering the market’s radar and could add a weather premium to soybean prices if production risks increase later in the season.

At this stage, however, there are no indications of production losses. Weather forecasts continue to point to adequate rainfall across Brazil’s Center-West during critical crop development stages, while heavier precipitation is expected in parts of southern Brazil.

Even so, updated climate models, including NOAA forecasts, indicate the possibility of a high-intensity El Niño event, with its strongest influence expected between November and January, the most sensitive period for soybean development.

Although it remains premature to discuss significant production losses, market participants are beginning to monitor weather developments more closely, given the potential impact on the 2026/27 crop should conditions become less favorable.

In this environment, analysts recommend producers remain cautious regarding forward sales of the new soybean crop. While locking in production costs continues to be an important risk management strategy, excessive forward selling may be avoided until production potential becomes more certain.

According to market participants, soybean prices could receive additional support if adverse weather conditions materialize during the 2026/27 growing season, increasing uncertainty over South American production.