Porto Alegre, May 21, 2026 – Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) faced an intense and highly volatile week amid the release of the first USDA supply and demand report for the new U.S. crop cycle and the closely watched meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected a strong soybean crush outlook for the 2026/27 season, while maintaining conservative export estimates that did not fully incorporate expectations of stronger Chinese demand.
According to the USDA, U.S. planted soybean area was estimated at around 34.3 million hectares, close to planting intentions released in March. Yield was projected at approximately 53 bushels per acre, matching the previous crop and reinforcing the department’s traditional approach of beginning the season with optimistic production expectations.
Initial U.S. soybean production for 2026/27 was estimated at 120.7 million metric tons, while total supply was projected at 130.6 million tons, supported by beginning stocks of 9.2 million tons.
The USDA also projected crush demand at around 74.8 million tons, maintaining expectations for record domestic processing activity. However, the export outlook remained more cautious, with shipments projected at only 44.3 million tons.
Market participants believe the USDA may not have fully considered the possibility of a stronger return by China to the U.S. soybean market. Analysts estimate that if Chinese purchases effectively return to previously expected levels, U.S. exports could move closer to 50 million metric tons, significantly tightening ending stocks.
As a result, soybean futures initially traded firmly above US$12.00 per bushel during the week. However, disappointment following the Trump-Xi meeting, which did not announce additional Chinese soybean purchases, triggered heavy fund liquidation and pushed July contracts from US$12.29 down to US$11.77 per bushel.
Even so, the market still does not interpret the move as a definitive reversal in trend. Expectations remain that renewed Chinese buying activity could tighten U.S. stocks considerably, especially amid firm crush demand linked to biodiesel production.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), biodiesel production could reach around 5.6 billion gallons during the season, which would require additional soybean oil demand and potentially support further crushing activity.
In the United States, soybean planting continues advancing rapidly. Fieldwork reached approximately 49% of the projected area, above both last year’s pace and the historical average.
Although rainfall remained limited in parts of the Midwest during the first half of May, major producing states such as Iowa, Illinois and Indiana continue maintaining favorable soil moisture conditions. Weather models indicate improved rainfall patterns toward the end of the month.
Meanwhile, U.S. soybean export sales remain weak. Total accumulated sales currently stand at around 39 million metric tons, below the 47.8 million tons registered during the same period last year.
Soybean meal exports, however, continue performing strongly. Accumulated sales reached approximately 15 million tons, up 18.1% from the same period in the previous year, partly supported by stronger European demand outside Argentina.
In Argentina, the 2025/26 soybean harvest advanced to 60% of the projected area, according to the country’s Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Harvest progress stood at 41% the previous week and 66% during the same period last year.
Brazilian soybean export shipments also remain robust. According to Safras & Mercado, the line-up schedule points to soybean exports of 16.98 million metric tons through the end of May.
From a technical perspective, soybean futures lost momentum after failing to sustain gains above US$12.00 per bushel. Even so, analysts note that the market still has not confirmed a broader bearish reversal and remains within a sideways trading range while awaiting new demand developments and weather updates.
