Porto Alegre, April 23, 2026 – The soybean market remains, for now, in a sideways stance for soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade. The scenario continues to be anchored in demand expectations, while current price levels also find support in the strong performance of soybean oil. For the grain, the US scenario still shows weakness in weekly sales. China, in turn, maintains a more restrained pace: shipments are around 10 million tons, while accumulated sales approach 12 million. The key point is that, at this moment, there is no significant recovery in Chinese demand for US soybeans. The trend is for this flow to regain strength only with the arrival of the new US crop.
Soybean meal still maintains a high level of overbought conditions. Given current grain prices and, especially, oil prices, a very elevated crush margin is observed, significantly above the historical average. In theory, this scenario — combined with the expected increase in crushing in the US crop, which may still grow throughout the season — should result in a more robust supply and higher export volumes of meal.
However, the market continues to show a strong buying presence across virtually the entire soybean complex, with funds supporting movements on the exchange.
The focus now shifts to the new US crop. Planting is progressing well, above the historical average. In the short term, there is some concern about drier conditions in regions such as Nebraska, but this scenario should persist only until around April 25. After that, weather maps indicate improvement, and soil moisture is expected to remain favorable in the coming weeks.
The key point will be to monitor the pace of planting and, above all, weather developments from June onward — a period when conditions begin to have a more direct impact on US crop yields.
In the Brazilian market, a scenario of very depressed prices for producers persists. The drop in the dollar, testing the R$ 5.00 level, pressures prices in reais, while production costs remain projected at higher levels. This shifts the crop’s results almost entirely to the productivity variable.
In this context, it is not advisable to carry soybeans, except in cases where there has already been good forward selling and the producer has sufficient cash to meet obligations. In this specific situation, without immediate need to sell, it may make sense to retain the product, considering that the market is going through one of its worst pricing moments and there are signs pointing to possible improvements in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, when the volume sold is low, it is essential to consider the cost of money and storage — that is, the cost of carry. Keeping soybeans stored for many months, in this case, tends not to be economically rational. It would require a very strong movement in the physical market, driven by price makers, to offset these costs — a scenario that currently has low probability given the effort required.
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