CBOT maintains bullish bias ahead of May USDA report for soybeans

Porto Alegre, May 13, 2026 – Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) maintained a bullish bias during the week, with the market closely monitoring volatility in oil prices and expectations surrounding the upcoming May supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Trading in the Brazilian domestic market slowed during the week, with only minor price fluctuations. Port prices continued hovering around R$128 to R$129 per sack in the spot market, while liquidity remained limited for nearby shipment positions.

The week was marked by intense volatility across commodities following fluctuations in oil prices tied to developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and renewed tensions in the Middle East. Although a ceasefire announcement earlier in May had temporarily eased pressure on oil markets, new attacks on vessels toward the end of the week renewed concerns and increased uncertainty.

Soybean oil prices posted significant adjustments amid this scenario, while soybean futures continued experiencing elevated volatility. In Brazil, strong business volumes were recorded early in the week, but trading activity later slowed again as prices remained unattractive for producers.

Premiums continue showing stronger liquidity from June onward, although still around 20 to 25 cents in bids. More distant positions, especially August through October, remain considerably firmer, with premiums between 70 and 80 cents in bids.

Market participants continue closely monitoring expectations surrounding a possible return of China to the U.S. soybean market, especially ahead of Donald Trump’s scheduled trip to Beijing on May 14 and 15. The market expects the meeting could reinforce agreements involving Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.

Attention is also turning to the May USDA report, which will provide the first official supply and demand projections for the new U.S. crop. Market expectations currently point to U.S. soybean production above 120 million metric tons, with ending stocks slightly below current levels.

Meanwhile, U.S. soybean sales remain relatively slow under the current scenario. Cumulative net sales total around 38.9 million metric tons, down approximately 18.2% from the same period last year.

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans currently total approximately 11.8 million metric tons, while shipments to China have reached around 10.6 million metric tons so far this season.

In the United States, soybean planting continues progressing rapidly. According to the latest USDA report, approximately 33% of the estimated area had been planted, compared to 23% the previous week and 28% in the same period last year.

Although planting progress remains favorable, weather conditions are beginning to enter the market radar. Some producing regions, especially Nebraska and parts of the western Corn Belt, continue facing dry conditions and low soil moisture levels.

At this stage, weather conditions are not yet considered a direct threat to yield potential. However, the market is closely monitoring forecasts, particularly as climate models indicate the possibility of improved rainfall patterns beginning in the second half of May.

In Argentina, the 2025/26 soybean harvest reached 41% of the projected area, according to data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Harvest progress stood at 17% the previous week and 45% during the same period last year.

Weather forecasts indicate drier conditions across Argentina’s main producing regions during the first half of May, which should favor harvest progress and improve logistics flow after delays caused by excessive rainfall in recent weeks.

Brazilian soybean export shipments also remain strong. According to Safras & Mercado, the line-up schedule at Brazilian ports points to shipments of 14.06 million metric tons through the end of May.

From a technical perspective, soybean futures in Chicago continue maintaining a positive structure after breaking above the US$12.00 per bushel level. Despite recent pullbacks linked to oil market volatility, the market still shows no clear signs of bearish reversal.

Technical projections now point to possible targets between US$12.80 and US$13.00 per bushel, supported by expectations of stronger U.S. demand and firm market fundamentals.