Internal physical coffee market is bullish and favors selling opportunities

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Good and fine cups intended for exports remain more valued, taking advantage of the rally in New York. It is normal for coffee to find a bullish scenario after the pressure from the crop arrival is overcome. But the large production reaped this year in Brazil and the shorter demand stance inhibited a more significant upward shift in prices. The decline in certified coffee stocks and the dollar’s low helped break these ties, boosting earnings and making life easier for growers.

In any case, it is important for growers to take advantage of the good moment to dilute sales positions, with both the physical and the future crops. The price appraisal of good cups from the 2024 crop rose to BRL 910 to BRL 920 per bag, an increase of more than BRL 100 compared to the beginning of October. The fact is that the fundamental reality of the market continues to indicate slack in future supply, calling into question the upward movement in the medium and long term.

Conillon has been moving sideways, not following the arabica gains. Robusta traded in London rose less than arabica in NY, seeking international repositioning after the recent appreciation. The expectation of the crop arrival in Vietnam is a factor that helps to draw strength from robusta. This ends up negatively interfering with the export parity of Brazilian conillon, justifying the adjustment trajectory of type 7/8 in Colatina, Espírito Santo. Despite the laterality, conillon still maintains a good advantage over the average reference and remains within a region very favorable to sellers. But attention should be paid, as the increase in supply from other sources and the intensification of competition with arabica could negatively affect this advantage.