Brazilian physical coffee market pressured by crop and ICE and dollar volatility

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  Porto Alegre, May 27th, 2022 – The Brazilian Coffee market sees a slight reaction of arabica, following the ICE US and dollar. Gains are limited by the start of the arabica harvest. In the case of conillon, the market assumes a downward bias, reflecting the increase in the physical supply in line with the progress of the harvest. Good cup from the south of Minas Gerais ranges from BRL 1,240 to 1,260 a bag, with finer cups reaching between BRL 1,260 and 1,280 in the Cerrado and Mogiana. Rio coffee in Matas de Minas costs around BRL 1,200 a bag. The movement in the physical remains short, with demand working from hand to mouth and with restrained growers.

    The idea for future commitments with Brazil’s 2023 crop is lower than the physical price, which causes some discomfort among sellers. The prospect of improved supply next year explains this negative future curve for coffee prices. It is important for growers to look more closely at the gradual management of future margins. Fertilizer costs are higher, and a decline in coffee prices in 2023 could further decrease the growers’ margin.

     Conillon type 7/8 in Colatina in Espírito Santos fell to 720 per bag, pressured by the crop advance and less aggressiveness from the industry. The idea for 400 defects placed in the industry in São Paulo is around BRL 770 a bag.

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