Porto Alegre, April 23, 2026 – Soybeans posted a more volatile week on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), but stronger buying activity helped establish a new support level for prices as the market focused on rising sales of the 2026/27 U.S. crop.
The November soybean contract found support between US$11.30 and US$11.35 per bushel, underpinned by forward sales of the new U.S. crop and already committed volumes destined for China. The movement improved market sentiment and reinforced expectations of a gradual return of Chinese demand to the U.S. market.
Old-crop (2025/26) export sales have become less relevant, as the current balance sheet is already well defined. Slower exports have been largely offset by strong domestic demand in the United States, where soybean crushing has reached record monthly levels and continues to support soybean oil prices.
Forward sales of the 2026/27 crop strengthened considerably during the week. Weekly net sales reached approximately 902,200 metric tons, compared with the 150,000 to 300,000 metric ton range reported in previous weeks.
Cumulative new-crop sales have now reached 2.238 million metric tons, compared with 1.349 million metric tons in the same period last year, representing an increase of about 66%.
Although total sales remain relatively modest in absolute terms, the acceleration has improved market confidence. China has already booked around 200,000 metric tons of the new crop, helping soybean futures gain nearly 2% during Thursday’s trading session.
Market attention is now turning to the USDA’s planted acreage report, scheduled for the week of June 30. The report could significantly influence prices depending on whether planted area is revised higher or lower than current expectations.
The market currently expects the USDA to estimate soybean planted area at approximately 85.37 million acres, or 34.54 million hectares, compared with the March planting intentions of 84.7 million acres.
Weather also remains a key variable for the new U.S. crop. Forecasts indicate the possibility of heat waves affecting large portions of the Midwest through mid-July, increasing market attention as crop development becomes more important for price formation.
Most major soybean-producing states are expected to experience higher temperatures, making weather conditions one of the main factors to monitor over the coming weeks.
In Brazil, the domestic soybean market remains firm. Commercialization has surpassed 67% of expected production, reducing available supplies for the remainder of 2026 and limiting selling pressure.
According to market participants, the spread between buyers and sellers has widened, while prices continue to find support from firm basis levels and favorable exchange rate movements.
The market also continues to benefit from strong domestic demand, producers’ focus on marketing the second corn crop, weather concerns surrounding the next soybean season, and buyers seeking forward coverage amid uncertainty over future supplies.
These factors are already being reflected in the spreads between August, September and October contracts, with October export prices continuing to test the BRL 145 per sack level.
