With a smaller soybean crop, Brazil is forecast to export less in 2024

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Soybean seeds in a hand after good harvest of successful farmer, combine harvester transferring freshly harvested soy to tractor-trailer, slow motion

Porto Alegre, January 16, 2024 – With the decline in production, due to the unfavorable climate, mainly in Mato Grosso, Brazil is forecast to export fewer soybeans in 2024.

Soybean exports from Brazil must total 95 mln tons in 2024, against 101.86 mln in 2023. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand framework, released by SAFRAS & Mercado. In the previous report, released in December, projections were 100 mln tons for each season.

SAFRAS indicates the crushing of 54.3 mln tons in 2024 and 53.5 mln tons in 2023, with an increase of 1% between one season and the next. In December, projections were 54 and 53 mln tons, respectively. SAFRAS indicates imports of 110 thousand tons in 2024, against 181 thousand tons in 2023.

For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to decrease by 4%, reaching 156.77 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 152.3 mln tons, decreasing 4% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected to fall by 16%, from 5.306 to 4.472 mln tons.

SAFRAS projects soymeal production at 41.68 mln tons in 2024, 1% higher. Exports should fall by 7% to 21 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.5 mln, up 3%. Stocks are expected to rise 87% to 4.67 mln tons.

Soyoil production is forecast to increase by 1% to 10.96 mln tons. Brazil is likely to export 1.5 mln tons, down 36%. Domestic consumption is to rise 10% to 9.5 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 18% to 5.2 mln tons. Stocks should fall by 4% to 485 thousand tons.

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