USDA’s neutral report does not bring major impacts to the soybean market


Porto Alegre, March 5, 2024 – The March supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 8, focused the market’s attention last week but did not bring any major impact to the market. The initial numbers underwent a few changes but they were not surprising. The small cut indicated for the Brazilian crop drew attention, resulting in a production of 155 mln tons, while the market expected 152.5 mln tons. Attention now turns to the USDA’s planting intention report, which will be released on the 29th.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to hit 4.165 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 113.35 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 50.6 bushels per acre. The numbers remained unchanged in comparison to February.

Ending stocks are projected at 315 mln bushels or 8.57 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 319 mln bushels or 8.68 mln tons. There was no change compared to the previous report.

USDA repeated the crush estimate of 2.3 bln bushels (62.59 mln tons). Export estimates remained at 1.72 bln bushels (46.81 mln tons).

Regarding the global picture, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2023/24 of 396.85 mln tons. In February, the forecast was 398.21 mln. Ending stocks were reduced from 116 to 114.3 mln tons. The market expected 114.5 mln tons.

USDA projected the US crop was 113.3 mln tons, the same number as in the previous report, as already mentioned.

The Brazilian crop was projected at 155 mln tons, down 1 mln tons from the previous estimate. For Argentina, the forecast is for the production of 50 mln tons, unchanged. The market expected 152.5 mln for Brazil and 50.2 mln for Argentina.

China is expected to import 105 mln tons. In February, the forecast was 102 mln tons.

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