Porto Alegre, August 27, 2026 – Soybeans ended the week with strong gains on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), supported by renewed buying interest, strong export volumes for the new U.S. crop and continued demand from China. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour ultimately delivered a positive surprise for production potential after pointing to less favorable crop conditions throughout much of the week.
Chicago moved from US$11.921½ per bushel to US$12.395 per bushel by the close on Friday (21), accumulating gains of close to 4% for the week.
Uncertainty remains over the actual potential of the U.S. soybean crop. The Crop Tour estimates yields at approximately 53.3 bushels per acre, with production potential of 124.4 million metric tons, which would represent a record if confirmed.
However, there are important discrepancies. Samples collected throughout the week indicated conditions below those observed last year, when record yields of around 53 bushels per acre were recorded. Concerns were not limited to the Dakotas, which have been heavily affected by heat and drought. Less favorable conditions were also observed in some Midwestern states, including key producing regions such as Ohio and Indiana.
At the same time, some states continue to show production potential above initial expectations, particularly Illinois, helping explain the significant divergence between field observations and the production potential indicated by the Crop Tour.
On the demand side, it was another very active week for new-crop sales. In addition to the strong figures reported in Thursday’s weekly export report, several sales were registered throughout the week. On Friday alone, approximately 1.4 million metric tons were announced, with around 712 thousand metric tons destined for China.
As a result, China has already purchased around 6.5 million to 7 million metric tons of the 2026/27 U.S. soybean crop.
The Crop Tour brought a new perspective to the market by indicating greater production potential than initially expected. However, this also raises questions about the yield adjustments made in the August WASDE and the actual size of the U.S. crop. Further revisions may occur in September, but not necessarily upward.
There is still an important weather window ahead in the United States. Crop conditions declined another 1% during the week, meaning the possibility of production ultimately falling below current projections cannot be ruled out. A clearer assessment of the crop’s potential will only emerge as harvesting progresses.
In this environment, although CBOT prices are approaching the market’s previous high, an important resistance area, demand flows remain strong and supply uncertainties persist. Therefore, a continuation of the upward movement cannot be ruled out, including more aggressive gains and tests of new price levels.
In Brazil, the market also remains active as strong demand continues to absorb available supplies. Line-ups are approaching 100 million metric tons, while premiums remain firm despite the recent rise in CBOT prices and the dollar. Further increases in premium levels may still occur.
For September and October, the trend is toward even greater firmness. An estimated 84% to 85% of the Brazilian crop has already been marketed, while available soybean supplies are becoming increasingly scarce. Producers who still have soybeans available tend to hold inventories and seek better selling opportunities, supporting and, in some cases, raising buyers’ bids.
There is still a significant spread between buyers and sellers, but overall price levels and trading volumes have been advancing. This movement has been particularly evident in the Center-West, including Mato Grosso and Goiás, while Minas Gerais has also stood out.
Even so, business reported throughout the week remained relatively limited, reflecting a more cautious stance among sellers as available soybean supplies continue to decline.
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