Porto Alegre, March 27, 2023 – The Brazilian soybean harvest is advancing and determining the rhythm of the world and domestic markets. Abundant supply puts pressure on prices and keeps traders cautious. Trades are isolated. Abroad, the market is still feeling the impact of the banking crisis and a strong aversion to risk.
With half of the soybean harvest completed and the weather forecast favorable to work in the coming few weeks, the Brazilian crop must set a record. This assessment is made by SAFRAS & Mercado analyst and consultant Luiz Fernando Gutierrez Roque, during a lecture given at the 5th SAFRAS Agri Week. “Our current projection is 152.4 mln tons,” he said.
The analyst recalls that the country continues to expand the area planted with the oilseed. “It has increased for nearly 20 years and is estimated at 43.8 mln ha in the 2022/23 season,” he added.
This year, the La Niña phenomenon brought serious problems only to Rio Grande do Sul. “Even so, the state must have a production 77% higher in 2022/23 than in the 2021/22 season, totaling around 17 mln tons,” Gutierrez Roque projected. “If there were no climate problems, it could reach 21 or 22 mln tons,” he warns. In the last crop, it was only between 9 and 10 mln tons.
Regarding Brazilian stocks, the situation must be calmer at the end of the year. They are estimated to close 2023 at 5.8 mln tons, against 3.8 mln in 2022.
In Argentina, the situation is quite delicate due to the climate. “It will be the third year in a row with productivity losses,” the consultant pointed out, adding that it must be below 30 mln tons this year. One of the reflections will be the increase in the country’s imports, which must jump to 10 mln tons, while normally they hit 4 to 5 mln tons. “Exports must fall from 5.6 to 1.0 mln tons.
For soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, forecasts for the second quarter and second half are not positive now. “Everything will depend on the area to be planted in the United States and the climate in the country,” the analyst said. Therefore, growers have to take advantage of any upward movement of the exchange to negotiate.
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