Safras raises soybean export projection to 96 mln tons in 2024

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Soybean seeds in a hand after good harvest of successful farmer, combine harvester transferring freshly harvested soy to tractor-trailer, slow motion

Porto Alegre, April 18, 2024 – Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 96 mln tons in 2024, against 101.86 mln in 2023, down 6%. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand estimate, released by Safras & Mercado. In the previous report, released in March, the projection was 94 mln tons.

Safras indicates crushing at 54.3 mln tons in 2024 and 53.165 mln tons in 2023. There was no change in the forecast compared to March.

Safras indicates imports of 650 thousand tons in 2024, against 181 thousand tons in 2023.

For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to decrease by 4%, reaching 156.54 mln tons. Total demand is projected by Safras at 153.3 mln tons, falling 4% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected to fall by 30%, from 4.641 to 3.237 mln tons.

Safras estimates the soymeal production at 41.75 mln tons in 2024, repeating the previous year. Exports are expected to fall by 7% to 21 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.6 mln, falling 6%. Stocks are expected to rise 147% to 3.62 mln tons.

Soyoil production is expected to grow by 1% to 10.96 mln tons. Brazil is expected to export 1.3 mln tons, down 44%. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 12% to 9.65 mln tons. Use for biodiesel is expected to increase 17% to 5.6 mln tons. The forecast is for stocks to rise by 12% to 575 thousand tons.

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