Safras and Conab cut their soybean estimates. USDA also reduces forecast but only slightly

656-01767013 Model Release: No Property Release: No Still life of soya beans

Porto Alegre, February 14, 2024 – Last week was marked by new estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop in 2023/24. Safras & Mercado and the National Supply Company (Conab) cut their projections to less than 150 mln tons. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also reduced its numbers but was much more conservative.

Brazilian soybean production in 2023/24 is expected to total 149.076 mln tons, down 5.5% from the previous season’s crop, which stood at 157.83 mln tons. The estimate was released by Safras & Mercado. On January 5, the date of the previous estimate, the projection was 151.36 mln tons. The reduction from the previous forecast is 1.5%.

Adjustments were made to the expected average yield for states in the South, Southeast, Midwest and Northeast regions. The harvest progress begins to reveal the reality of Brazilian production, especially in the states that suffered from low moisture and high temperatures during the last quarter of 2023.

Nevertheless, the arrival of rain from the last days of December brought a more favorable environment for crop development in the Center-North of the country, especially in areas that were sown later or replanted. This fact should prevent an even sharper decline in the average yield expected for some states, especially in the Northeast Region. If regular rain continues to hit certain states, there may be positive surprises in the coming few weeks.

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