Climate maps indicate a better rainfall situation for the main coffee areas in Brazil over the next few weeks, with the accumulated volume increasing especially by the end of October. A situation very favorable to a new blossoming and the post-blossoming period. Climate models also indicate good accumulated moisture in November and December, which reinforces the positive signs for the next Brazilian crop. The preliminary idea is that the country will reap a larger crop in 2024 than it did in 2023, especially of arabica. Robusta production should remain unchanged.
There are some ideas on the international circuit that Brazil will have a huge crop in 2024. The truth is that the arabica crop can be greater in 2024 than that reaped in 2023. However, it should be below the last record of 50 mln bags of arabica, in 2020. In this sense, perhaps to know whether there is potential for a new record crop in Brazil we depend on the size of the conillon output, which has quite increased since 2020 due to production gains in Espírito Santo and Rondônia.
In general terms, the basic scenario so far is that there is potential for Brazil to reap more coffee in 2024, especially of arabica. However, there is still plenty to be defined before the harvest. The post-blossoming period, with rain and temperatures in the last quarter of the year, besides graining and the harvest progress conditions. In any case, the preliminary perception is that we can have two full crops in a row, after production below potential in 2021 and 2022. This preliminary idea must serve as a guide for the price behavior in New York.