Lack of rain in Vietnam, excess moisture in Indonesia, and first polar air mass in Brazil for coffee


The climate scenario in Southeast Asia continues to be a key concern for the market. Although moisture is forecast to increase in Vietnam over the next 8 to 14 days, expected volumes are still insufficient to alleviate producers’ concerns. In addition to the low amount of rainfall, the distribution of this precipitation remains irregular, with the greatest accumulation concentrated in the northern region of the country. This panorama is especially worrying for the development of blossoming, even in areas that have irrigation systems. The necessary climate stability will only be achieved with more intense rainfall, which is sufficient both for blossoming and to sustain the subsequent development of plantations after blossoming. Thus, Vietnam’s 24/25 crop remains in check, with the weather window narrowing each week, which guarantees weather-induced price gains.

In Indonesia, even with the reduction in rainfall, concerns persist. Excess moisture can delay fruit maturation and interfere with the start of the harvest. In a context of scarcity in the supply of robusta, any delay in the arrival of coffee amplifies concerns about supply.

A cold front advances through the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, bringing rain to the coffee areas over the next 7 days. Moisture should decrease in the following weeks in the southeast of the country, a region that concentrates Brazil’s main coffee plantations, favoring the progress of reaping and drying. Although the arrival of the first cold wave of the year will reduce temperatures, it is not expected to be as intense. There is no risk of frost for coffee areas. The cold should be concentrated mainly in the southern states of the country. When moving to São Paulo and the south of Minas, it becomes more oceanic, increasing moisture and reducing the chances of frost.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA ) updated its projections for El Niño and La Niña phenomenon, which monitors oceanic and atmospheric changes. The March report indicates a loss of El Niño strength in April, with climate neutrality prevailing again. Forecasts point to the establishment of La Niña from June onward, with the phenomenon gaining intensity in the second half of 2024. Therefore, the winter in Brazil is expected to be drier and colder compared to the previous year. The frequency of polar air masses entering coffee areas will increase, which increases the risk of frost. However, it is important to emphasize that the presence of a polar air mass does not guarantee the occurrence of frost. The formation of frost depends on the intensity of the arrival of this air mass to the producing regions and the atmospheric conditions at the time of its passage.