Coffee stocks should grow at the end of 24/25 season in Brazil

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The strong flow of robusta exports helped to reduce the internal physical availability of coffee in Brazil. There is less canephora (conillon/robusta), but there is still plenty of arabica in the hands of the Brazilian growers. This arabica coffee should be aimed at domestic consumption, replacing conillon, which was unviable for the local roasted and ground industry. These movements affect the composition of demand in the current 23/24 season (Jul/June). Hence a need for upward adjustments in export projections, as conillon has performed well above expectations. A slight realignment was also made in domestic consumption, following new recommendations from ABIC. This change in the composition of demand ended up reducing carryover stocks, projected at 5.45 mln bags at the end of June 2024.

For the 24/25 season, no changes were made to production numbers, which remain projected at just over 70 mln bags. However, the downward correction in beginning stocks ends up slightly changing the composition of supply for the next cycle. Expectations for exports remain conservative, reflecting the challenging global economic and financial scenario. Brazilian conillon should continue to be in the global spotlight, but with less shine due to increased competition, based on growing production in Asia. Brazilian arabica coffee should continue to recover foreign participation. Domestic consumption shows a sign of slight improvement.

In general terms, it will be a season of more Brazilian coffee on the world market, especially in the case of arabica. Besides the recovery of internal stocks. The increase in production associated with a short and measured approach by demand, based on the strategy of carrying stocks in the hands of growers, supports this scenario of greater tranquility in supply.