Coffee exchange ratio worsens with the war in Ukraine

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The exchange ratio between coffee and fertilizers has worsened since the war in Ukraine. The combination of the rise in fertilizer prices, which has Russia as one of its main global suppliers, with the drop in the price of coffee in the international market explains this worsening. Data from Safras point to a MAP exchange ratio in March of 4.09 bags of good cup from southern Minas per ton. In the case of urea, the ratio is 3.38 bags, and for KCI, 3.67 bags per ton.

However, analyzing the coffee exchange ratio curve in recent years, it can be seen that the number of bags per ton returned to the levels of 2018 and 2019. The fact is that the exchange ratio for coffee was very good in 2020 and especially in 2021. And the rise in inputs associated with the fall in the price of coffee, for now, has only brought the ratio back to the levels of 2 to 3 years ago. But the future scenario is worrying. The price of inputs since the conflict in Eastern Europe must remain high. And even with a solution to the conflict getting closer, the supply chain will take time to get back to normal, which practically excludes the possibility of a decline in the price of inputs in 2022. The price of coffee, on the other hand, is assuming a more negative bias. And that can worsen the exchange ratio.