Brazilian conillon remains highly demanded in the international market, justifying the firmness in its export differentials. Conillon 13 up is ranging between +4 and +5 cents FOB Vitória, staying above the five-year average (2019-2023) for the month of April, which is around +2 cents against the London reference converted into cents/lb. The price indication for the new crop is +2 cents for shipment between May/June, which is in line with the average reference for the Brazilian canephora (conillon/robusta) crop entry period, of around +1 and +2 cents.
The scarce global availability of robusta, resulting in a lower-than-expected crop in Vietnam and the lack of rain threatening the next crop of the world’s main robusta origin, has sparked growing interest in Brazilian conillon. This interest translates into a more intense external flow and helps to reduce the available supply. In March, Brazil exported 847 thousand bags of conillon, according to Cecafé. A significant improvement compared to the same period of the previous year, when only 107 thousand bags were shipped. The aggressiveness of global buyers for Brazilian conillon is expected to continue in the first months of the 24/25 season.
Indonesia’s robusta grade 2 is pegged at +500 points above July/24 and London. Although it has lost value compared to last week, when it was offered at +700 points, it is still much more expensive than Brazilian conillon, which is offered between +80 and +100 points. The harvest has been very slow in Indonesia, with the supply of new coffee only expected to gain more intensity in May.
Vietnam’s robusta export differential rose from +750 points last week to the current level of +900 to +1000 points. Drought conditions continue to worry about the potential of Vietnam’s 24/25 crop, justifying the higher differential, even with the surge in robusta prices in London.