Porto Alegre, October 22th, 2024 – With the return of rain, soybean planting advanced in Brazil last week. After a period of speculation, the initial outlook is for a record crop, estimated by Safras & Mercado at more than 172 mln tons. With this, the sentiment surrounding exports is also positive for next year.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 107 mln tons in 2025, compared to 97 mln in 2024, 10% higher. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand projection, released by Safras & Mercado. The numbers are the same as the previous estimate, released on July 19.
Safras indicates crushing at 55.5 mln tons in 2025 and 54.6 mln tons in 2024. The forecast for next year has not changed. The previous projection by Safras for 2024 was 54.3 mln tons.
The consultancy firm points to imports of 150 thousand tons in 2025, a figure unchanged from the previous estimate. For 2024, the import projection was reduced from 970 to 950 thousand tons in 2024.
Regarding the 2025 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 11%, reaching 175.22 mln tons. Total demand is projected by Safras at 166 mln tons, up 7% from the previous year. Therefore, final stocks are expected to rise by 181% from 3.285 to 9.215 mln tons.
Safras projects soymeal production at 42.7 mln tons in 2025, up 2%. Exports are expected to fall 2% to 22 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 20.3 mln tons, up 8%. Stocks are expected to rise by 18% to 2.65 mln tons.
Soyoil production is expected to grow 1% to 11.13 mln tons. Brazil should export 1 mln tons, down 20%. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 5% to 10.3 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase 13% to 6 mln tons. Stocks are expected to fall 35% to 275,000 tons.
Safras News