The USDA’s biannual report virtually maintained the world production at 169.33 million bags in the 19/20 season. The Department reduced the estimate for Brazilian coffee production from 59.3 to 58 million bags this season. With that, it increased crop losses to 10% from the record of 64.80 million bags harvested in the previous season. For Colombia it kept production at 14.30 million bags, confirming the 3% advance over the previous season. The fall in Brazil’s crop is offset by higher production in Vietnam, from 30.5 to 32.23 million bags in 19/20. So, it sustains an increase of 6% over last season.
In general, production has changed little, confirming the 3% decline in the global production. What USDA changed most was distribution, with negative correction for arabica and positive for robusta. Thus, arabica output must hit 95.77 million bags, accounting for 57% of the total, against 59.5% in the previous season. Robusta accounts for 43%, totaling 73.57 million bags, against 40.5% last season.
This review in world production must increase the appreciation of arabica coffee over robusta, so prompting support to coffee contracts on ICE in NY, especially against robusta negotiated on ICE Europe.
