El mercado global de urea, que moviliza cerca de 55 millones de toneladas anuales, se encuentra fuertemente distorsionado por las políticas de China e India, países que condicionan el 18% del comercio mundial a través de subsidios estatales y controles a las exportaciones, según un informe de Ingeniería en Fertilizantes (IF).
India consume aproximadamente 40 millones de toneladas de urea por año, de las cuales debe importar entre 7 y 10 millones de toneladas para cubrir su déficit productivo interno. El país asiático mantiene uno de los esquemas de subsidios más agresivos del mundo para este insumo estratégico.
China, en tanto, se consolida como el mayor consumidor global, con una demanda cercana a 59 millones de toneladas anuales, y también como el principal productor mundial. Esta doble condición le permite regular el saldo exportable global mediante aranceles y restricciones, estabilizando sus exportaciones en un rango de 3 a 5 millones de toneladas en los últimos años.
“El Gobierno indio cubre cerca del 90% del valor de la urea, ofreciendo al productor local un insumo a US$ 40, cuando su costo de importación ronda los US$ 400 por tonelada”, detalla el informe.
El peso de la intervención estatal en India resulta determinante para el mercado internacional. El sistema de subsidios desacopla el consumo de los precios globales y sostiene la demanda aun en escenarios agrícolas adversos. En total, el Estado indio destina cerca de US$ 23.000 millones anuales al conjunto de fertilizantes, una cifra comparable a la totalidad de los ingresos por exportaciones granarias de Argentina en 2024.
Según IF, este esquema genera fuertes distorsiones en los precios relativos internacionales, afecta la competitividad de productores sin subsidios y condiciona la formación de precios en mercados dependientes de la importación, como América Latina.
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