Porto Alegre, July 16th, 2024 – The July report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) caught the market’s attention last Friday (12) but did not bring major changes or surprises, having only a neutral impact on the market.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to be 4.435 bln bushels in 2024/25, equivalent to 120.7 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 52 bushels per acre. The number exceeded market expectations of 4.416 bln or 120.2 mln tons. In June the estimate was 4.45 bln bushels or 121.1 mln tons.
Ending stocks are projected at 435 mln bushels or 11.84 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 445 mln bushels or 12.11 mln tons. In June, stocks were estimated at 455 mln bushels or 12.38 mln tons.
USDA is estimating exports of 1.825 bln bushels (49.67 mln tons) and crushing of 2.425 bln bushels (65.99 mln tons), unchanged from the previous report. For 2023/24, the Department indicated carryover stocks of 345 mln bushels (9.39 mln tons). The market expected 353 mln bushels (9.61 mln tons).
Regarding the global picture, USDA projected a global soybean crop in 2024/25 of 421.85 mln tons. In June, the number was 422.26 mln. For 2023/24, the forecast is 395.41 mln tons.
Ending stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 127.76 mln tons, above the market forecast of 127.1 mln tons. Last month, the forecast was 127.9 mln tons. Stocks for the 2023/24 season are estimated at 111.25 mln tons. The market expected 110.9 mln tons.
For Brazilian production, USDA maintained estimates at 153 mln tons for 2023/24 and 169 mln for 2024/25. The market expected 152.1 mln tons for the current season.
For Argentina, the forecast for 2023/24 was cut from 50 to 49.5 mln tons, against market expectations of 50 mln. For 2024/25, the initial estimate is 51 mln tons, unchanged from the previous month.
Chinese imports in 2023/24 were estimated at 108 mln tons. For the next season, the forecast is for an increase to 109 mln tons. The previous month, the forecast was the same.
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