Soybean oil still supports bean movements on the exchange, with high correlation and positive crush spread

Porto Alegre, March 19th, 2026 – The week was still marked by many uncertainties and high risk aversion on soybean market, due to the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East. We observed large fluctuations in oil prices, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, with the passage closed and new attacks on vessels being reported.

For the soybean market, the scenario was one of strong volatility in prices, but with little impact on the physical market. Rising freight costs in the international market have created difficulties in forming bids, which limits liquidity. Thus, the business environment was one of a virtually stalled market, with many trading companies out of the market throughout the week.

In addition, new phytosanitary requirements have made grain exports more difficult at a time already marked by market fragility. In this context, some trading companies also chose not to originate volumes, precisely due to uncertainties and the new rules established by MAPA.

During the week, the USDA monthly report was released, which was generally neutral for the market. There were only some minor adjustments in the U.S. crushing and import framework, in addition to a new cut in Argentina’s production, but without relevant changes in the global balance sheet. U.S. exports remained practically unchanged, and the scenario continues to be marked by a slow pace in external sales and shipments, maintaining the perception of still moderate demand for U.S. soybeans.

The market maintains strong long positions in futures contracts, with the bean showing high correlation with soybean oil movements, supported by a crush spread above US$ 2 per bushel. This margin level has improved industry profitability and also the pricing equation for U.S. producers. This factor may become one of the main elements in the price ratio that influences planting decisions for the new 2026/27 season in the United States.

As we move into the end of March, the market begins to more closely observe planting intentions for the new U.S. crop. Given the current margin scenario and the high cost of inputs, especially with urea still at elevated levels amid purchases for the corn crop, expectations are increasing for crop rotation with a rise in soybean acreage. If this dynamic is confirmed and weather conditions remain favorable throughout the production cycle, the United States could reach production in the range of 122 to 124 million tonnes, depending on the final planted area and yield performance.

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