Signs of recovery in Colombian coffee production

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The harvest of the main coffee crop in Colombia is progressing, while there are also the first records of blossoming of the so-called Mitaca, a harvest that occurs between the main crop, from May to August. It may seem strange to talk about harvest and blossoming at the same time, but this is due to the climate conditions in Colombia, which produces coffee all year round. In the south of the country, the harvest takes place in the first half of the year. In the central strip, the harvest is spread over both halves of the year. In the northernmost plantations, the harvest takes place during the second half of the year.

Coffee production in Colombia grew in 2024, after small crops in the previous three years, affected by the long La Niña period. Low luminosity levels, due to the high incidence of cloudy days (which impairs photosynthesis), combined with below-normal temperatures (which affect physiological processes), ended up reducing the productive potential of crops. In addition, excess moisture hindered the absorption of nutrients and favored the spread of diseases, especially rust. This combination of factors has prevented Colombian production from advancing beyond 12 mln bags in recent years.

The arrival of El Niño at the end of last year created a more favorable climate for production. The reduction in the cost of fertilizers and the high price of coffee on the world market stimulated an increase in crop care, which also boosted an improvement in production. Cumulative production from September 2023 to August 2024 reached 12.53 mln bags, up 18% from shipments between September 2022 and August 2023, when it totaled 10.60 mln bags. The information comes from Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), which projects the production of 13 mln bags in 2024.

The USDA report in June projected a crop of 12.40 mln bags in the 24/25 season (October/September), but the combination of more favorable weather and greater investments helps support a more optimistic outlook for Colombian production, which could exceed 13 mln bags and approach the 14.10 mln bags achieved in the 19/20 season. The higher coffee price and the growth of producers’ financial margins (difference between price and cost) stimulate investments in productivity and crop renewal, which can have positive effects on production, continuing the recovery movement observed in recent years.