Porto Alegre, July 16th, 2024 – Even with smaller margins, the soybean acreage is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season in Brazil. Without climate problems, the initial bet is on record production, exceeding 170 mln tons and boosting the availability of the oilseed in the world’s largest producer by around 20 mln tons.
According to a survey of planting intentions by Safras & Mercado, Brazilian soybean producers are expected to seed 47.331 mln hectares in 2024/25, up 1.9% from the total 46.447 mln sown last year.
With a possibly higher yield, from 3,279 to 3,643 kilograms per hectare, national production should be above that obtained this season. The initial forecast is 171.542 mln tons, 13.2% higher than the 151.548 mln tons reaped this year.
The soybean planting intention survey for the 2024/25 Brazilian crop, which will begin to be sown from September, points to new growth in the planted area and national production potential, continuing the oilseed expansion movement in the main growing states of the country.
The area is expected to rise in practically all states in the country but at a slower pace than in previous seasons. This fact must be due to the decline in producers’ margins in recent months, which is mainly due to falling prices in Brazilian and international markets. In any case, as the oilseed is still a more profitable option than other crops in most states, producers will once again opt to expand the area.
In the South, after a season of losses in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, producers cope with the challenge of sowing a new crop in the face of the growing possibility of a new La Niña. We expect a small growth in the areas to be sown in both states, as in Rio Grande do Sul many producers keep coping with financial difficulties due to the production losses registered in recent years. Some corn areas may migrate to soybeans in both states, as well as some pasture areas.
In the Midwest and Southeast, growth in the soybean area should occur, with producers once again focusing on the soybean summer production and the corn second crop. New areas must be opened, mainly over pastures.
In the Northeast and North regions, once again we should have the highest percentages of growth, continuing the advance of soybeans in the “new agricultural frontier.” The increase in exports through the North Arc ports is a positive factor for the expansion of area, as is the good productivity registered in recent crops in some states. Despite this, the growth rate should also be lower than in previous seasons due to “tighter” margins.
If the weather permits, Brazilian soybean production could surpass the mark of 170 mln tons for the first time in history, initially estimated at 171.542 mln tons, a new record.
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