Porto Alegre, July 18th, 2024 – US pig farming numbers advance on several fronts in 2024, such as slaughter, production, and exports, besides signaling stronger domestic demand. With the European Union presenting the prospect of a challenging scenario ahead, with issues that impact the cost, prices throughout the chain, and the profitability of the activity, the USA and Brazil will likely advance in the share of pork sales in the international market.
On the 27th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data on the US herd as of June 1 and brought the sector’s estimate for births in the next quarter, a factor that helps in the future understanding of the sector. USDA pointed out the country’s total herd at 74.486 mln head, an increase of 1.27% compared to June/23, when it was 73.551 mln head. In comparison to the 74.321 mln head in March/24, the increase was 0.22%. As for matrices, there was a decline of 3.19% from Jun/23 (6.206 mln head) and of 0.13% from Mar/24 (6.016 mln head).
The birth of pigs between March and May 2024 was 34.0 mln head, an increase of 2% compared to the same period last year. Matrices during this period totaled 2.94 mln head, a slight increase from 2023. US pig producers aim to have 2.96 mln matrices calving during the Jun-Aug quarter of 2024, down 3% from the births registered in the same period the previous year, and a 4% decline from the same period two years earlier.
The data lead to the understanding that the US market is supplied, which will also be proven by the slaughter numbers and the USDA estimates for the year’s production, however, the level of matrices cannot find room for advances. Thus, with greater domestic demand and exports, the tendency is for the US market to become lean and prices to find support over the next few months. In any case, they should remain competitive in the international market.
As for slaughter, there were 54.142 mln head between Jan-May/24 compared to 52.925 mln head in the same period last year, an increase of 2.3%. For production, the latest USDA estimate for 2024 (April report) is 12.748 mln tons, up 2.89% from the 12.390 mln tons in 2023.
The USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Chicken Outlook report, also from June, brings the prospect of a promising scenario for the US swine chain. The cost of nutrition is falling in the country, leading some producers to increase the average weight of live animals, which means greater pork availability. On the other hand, pork has gained attractiveness compared to other proteins of animal origin in the domestic market, favoring consumption. Exports are also advancing, helping to reduce local supply and preventing sharp price lows.
In terms of exports, according to the US Department of Commerce, the country exported 1.115 mln tons in the first four months of 2024, an increase of 9.3% compared to the 1.020 mln tons in the same period last year. The five main destinations for US pork are: Mexico – 407.179 thousand tons; Japan – 175.203 thousand tons; South Korea – 134.359 thousand tons; Canada – 77.879 thousand tons; China – 58.918 thousand tons.
The first point that draws attention to the export figures is that the USA operates strongly in countries where Brazil is trying to strengthen ties and expand sales (Mexico, Japan, and South Korea). On the other hand, Brazil is selling more in the Philippines, China, and Singapore. By way of comparison, in the first four months of the year, Brazil exported 51.181 thousand tons to the Philippines, while the USA exported 9.412 thousand tons. To China, Brazil exported 90.177 thousand tons in the period, 31 thousand tons more than the USA.
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