Currency volatility, but with the dollar sustained at a high level, ends up softening the negative effect of the correction on ICE. As a result, physical prices changed little, remaining very close to the nominal highs. The month of February saw a change in the level of performance. And this early March has been characterized by the consolidation of recent gains.
The sales flow continues to increase, with growers managing their positions. The difference, perhaps, is the greater interest on the part of sellers. The best cups, even after slight adjustments, maintain a good advantage against the level of BRL 700 per bag. Good cup from the south of Minas is trading between BRL 730 and 735 a bag. Fine cup ranges from BRL 755 to 760 per bag in Mogiana and Cerrado, respectively. The market increases the advantage over the deflated average for the period. With that, it confirms the good moment for sellers, who are more willing to negotiate, although they are still cautious due to the fear of Brazil’s 2021 crop losses.
Also noteworthy are the positions with the new crop. The idea for Sep/21 is around BRL 750 to 780, and for Sep/22 at 790 to 810, depending on description and origin. This is a level that has attracted sellers, especially for commitments in advance with Brazil’s 2022 crop.
Local industry adjusts blend due to price highs
Other coffees also remain on the rise. Rio coffee with 20% of defects from the Matas de Minas region is pegged at BRL 520 a bag. Conillon type 7/8 from Espírito Santo went up to 450 per bag. This change in prices also impacted the stance of the domestic industry, which increased its interest in conillon to lower costs, which ended up supporting conillon, whose supply is scarcer at this end of the season.
The sell price of conillon placed in the industry in northern Paraná or in the state of São Paulo is already approaching the level of BRL 500 per bag, which frightens roasters. The local industry must only have some relief with the combination of crop progress of Brazil’s 2021 season and stabilization or some decline of the dollar. It is good to remember that the conillon harvest is starting earlier than usual, now in March in Rondônia. However, crop volume must only grow from April.