ICO cuts consumption and points to global surplus of 1.95 mln bags on 2019/20
The ICO has revised downward its projections for global coffee consumption in the 19/20 season. The lower-than-expected performance of imports in the first four months of the 19/20 business year (Oct/Jan) along with the global recession scenario in 2020, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, explain the decline in the projection. Between October 2019 and January 2020, world coffee imports totaled 40.86 million bags. This corresponds to a 9.4% decline from the same period of the previous year.
The organization then revised its world consumption forecast to 166.06 million bags and production to 168.01 million bags. The new figures no longer point to a deficit in the global supply, but a surplus of 1.95 million bags.
World coffee exports, on the other hand, totaled 11.49 million bags in March, down 3.7% from the same month last year (11.06 million bags). Negative highlight on Colombian milds, whose shipments decreased by 23.3%. In the 19/20 business year thus far, worldwide shipments reached 61.96 million bags, down 3.9% from the same period of the previous season. The most significant decline in the period are shipments of Brazilian naturals, which fell 10.2%. The smaller Brazilian production justifies this performance.