Despite the decline in the stock market, both for arabica and robusta, the coffee price in the domestic physical market remains quite valued, finding support in the strong dollar. In the south of Minas Gerais, good cup is indicated at BRL 1,430 per bag (USD 263 per bag), with the market remaining close to recent highs and representing a nominal gain of 81% compared to the same time last year. Even with a slight weakening in the price curve, the market remains well ahead of the average price reference for the last 5 years for October, which is BRL 921 per bag. As for the indications for delivery in September 2025 (next crop), they range between BRL 1,390 and BRL 1,400 per bag (USD 255 per bag) for good cup from the south of Minas Gerais. This corresponds to a value of around BRL 450 to BRL 460 above the deflated five-year average for September, which is around BRL 940 per bag. The appreciated dollar and the favorable exchange rate for the purchase of inputs reinforce the positive scenario for sales in 2025.
For those growers who still have plenty of coffee available, this is a good time to dilute the risk of a sharper downward turn, with the return of rain in Brazil, closing some sales positions. The idea is to maintain the strategy of diluting sales and managing opportunities. Further advantage could be taken from the moment to partially protect future margins by setting prices for the 2025 crop. But without rushing to sell in the face of uncertainty about production.
The finest cups are trading above BRL 1,530 to BRL 1,535 per bag (USD 281) and follow the gains of good cup, with emphasis on the appreciation of larger screens, due to the profile of the smaller arabica beans. The weaker arabica cup is also valued, following the gains of group 1 coffees. Rio cup is indicated in Matas de Minas at BRL 1,210 per bag (USD 222 per bag). These descriptions are being destined to the domestic roasted and ground industry, in exchange for the highly valued conillon, due to the strong export flow. Conillon remains very firm, finding support in the dollar, the appreciated differential at the port, and the sellers’ withdrawal. Conillon type 7/8 from Espírito Santo is indicated in Colatina at BRL 1,420 per bag (USD 261).
Domestic roasters continue to face problems because of the difficulty in increasing prices on the shelves and passing on the increasing costs caused by the coffee price highs. Arabica hard cup with 600 defects is pegged at BRL 1,330 per bag (USD 244) in Minas Gerais, a lower price level than that of robusta/conillon, which explains the shift of the roasted and ground industry toward arabica, especially to weaker cups.