Porto Alegre, October 29th, 2024 – The physical market prices keep gaining strength in Brazil due to the low availability of soybeans for the last weeks of 2024. This fact derives from strong exports and domestic demand in a scenario of lower physical supply due to the production problems that affected several growing states in the 2023/24 crop. Export premiums and especially domestic “bases” continue to gain strength, with domestic prices even detaching from export parity. This situation is more visible in the state of Mato Grosso, where the large production losses of the current season lead to a shortage of soybeans at this time. The trend continues to be positive for the physical market prices until the last days of the year or the beginning of the harvest in Brazil.
The price of a 60-kilogram bag rose from BRL 133.00 to BRL 136.00 in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, over the week. In Cascavel (PR), prices rose from BRL 136.00 to BRL 140.00. In Rondonópolis (MT), they rose from BRL 135.00 to BRL 149.00. At the port of Paranaguá, the bag ranged from BRL 141.00 to BRL 145.00.
In Chicago, last week was positive, supported by the good demand for US soybeans. US net exports of soybeans for the 2024/25 season, which began on September 1, totaled 2,151,700 tons in the week ending October 17. China led imports, with 1,289,200 tons. Analysts expected exports at 1.2 mln to 2.5 mln tons. In light of this, the spot contract (November/24) rose 1.83%, closing Friday (25) at USD 9.8775 per bushel.
The dollar remains firm, with a slight appreciation of 0.09%, closing the week at around BRL 5.70. Risk aversion abroad and concerns about the fiscal issue in Brazil continue to support the currency.
Safras News