Brazilian conilon already reflects the entry of new crop coffee into the market, with harvest advancing in Rondônia and Espírito Santo. The high carryover volume from the 2025 crop, especially in Espírito Santo, also pressures export differentials. The producer is more active in selling, seeking to reduce stocks before the greater advance of the new crop, which should again be large, even with a slight negative adjustment.
Brazil Conilon 13 up is indicated between -2 and -3 cents/lb FOB port, equivalent to -US$ 66 to -US$ 44 per ton, against London for shipments through May, and between -4 and -3 cents/lb, or -US$ 88 to -US$ 66 per ton, for shipments from June onward. These are more competitive levels than last year and below those practiced by the main Asian competitors.
Vietnam robusta grade 2 FOB Ho Chi Minh is indicated between +US$ 150 and +US$ 200 per ton over London, while Indonesia EK 80 FOB Jakarta ranges between +US$ 100 and +US$ 140 per ton. The drop in London prices, logistical issues and the more restrained stance of sellers explain these higher differentials at these origins.
Brazil’s aggressiveness is already starting to have an effect. According to Cecafé, in March the country shipped 2.29 million bags of green coffee, around 10% below the same period last year. However, while arabica shipments fell 19%, robusta grew 165%, totaling 368 thousand bags.
This movement reflects more competitive differentials and the search by buyers for alternatives. Even so, robusta shipment volume remains relatively small compared to high stocks and the prospect of a large crop. This indicates that Brazil should continue aggressive on differentials to stimulate exports and thus try to reduce supply.
