We have passed mid-April. While exchanges remain agitated and volatile, reflecting the dollar, oil and geopolitical developments such as negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran, in addition to tensions between Israel and Lebanon, the domestic physical coffee market in Brazil shows a more negative slope in the price curve.
It is clear that the dollar below R$ 5.00 weighs negatively, and everything indicates it should remain weaker at least in the short term, but the main point is the seasonal pressure with the crop arriving in the case of conilon/robusta and approaching rapidly for arabica. This scenario helps explain the more defensive stance of the buyer, reinforcing expectations of lower prices ahead.
In this partial view of April, the July/26 position in NY is moving sideways and falling around 1%, while arabica in the domestic market drops nearly 7%. In addition to the arrival of new crop coffee, higher carryover stocks, even though concentrated in conilon/robusta, also pressure prices. In the case of robusta in London, the July/26 position accumulates gains of nearly 2%. Robusta stocks in London fell to the lowest level in 16 months, totaling 3,788 lots. Meanwhile, Brazilian conilon type 7/8 in Espírito Santo falls more than 9%.
The upward revision of the Brazilian crop this year, combined with higher stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season, tends to increase available supply from mid-year onward, reinforcing the negative bias in prices. It is worth noting that Brazilian coffee exports in the first nine months of the 2025/26 season are around 21% below the same period of the previous crop, despite the recovery in conilon shipments in March, according to Cecafé data.
