Owing to the drought in Rio Grande do Sul, the Brazilian soybean crop must be lower than initially expected. Nevertheless, the output must still be record in the country.
According to a new report by SAFRAS & Mercado, released on March 27, Brazilian soybean production in 2019/20 is likely to hit 124.188 million tons, up 4.1% from that of the previous season, which stood at 119.306 million tons. On the previous report from February 7, the projection was 124.554 million tons.
With the harvest nearly 75% complete, SAFRAS indicates an increase of 2% in the area, which stood at 37.112 million hectares. In 2018/19, the planting occupied 36.384 million hectares. The survey indicates that average productivity must rise from 3,296 to 3,363 kg/ha.
Important adjustments were made to the average productivity estimates of the main growing states in the country. The advancement of the harvest across the country brought a clearer picture of the true potential of Brazilian production this season.
In Rio Grande do Sul, the lack of moisture registered in the first quarter of the year culminated in one of the greatest production losses in recent years. Most plantations did not receive enough moisture in key development periods, which brought down the productive potential of plants from the northwest to the south of the state. With exceptions, only the northern region of the state registered satisfactory productivity. Unfortunately, the crop in Rio Grande do Sul suffered a major setback in 2020.
In spite of this, the other states in the South region, as well as the states in the Southeast and Midwest regions, registered a great average productivity, exceeding early expectations.
The increase in average productivity estimates are surprising for Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo. Such increases must offset a good part of the expected losses for Rio Grande do Sul, ensuring a new record production in Brazil.