2026 second crop corn losses continue to consolidate in Goiás, Minas Gerais and northern São Paulo

Porto Alegre, May 13, 2026 – Corn losses in Brazil’s 2026 second crop are beginning to consolidate in Goiás, Minas Gerais and northern São Paulo, amid persistent dry weather and uncertainty over rainfall during May. The domestic market continues searching for factors capable of supporting prices ahead of the harvest, while the overvalued Brazilian real limits gains in port quotations and weakens price formation in the interior.

Despite a relatively healthy international environment for corn and soybeans, exchange rate conditions continue pressuring the domestic market. Port prices remain at low levels, preventing better liquidity and pricing conditions for producers.

According to Safras & Mercado, losses in Goiás, Minas Gerais and northern São Paulo may still deepen if rainfall does not return soon enough to support grain filling. On the other hand, excellent crop conditions in Mato Grosso, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul continue offsetting part of these losses, avoiding a more severe reduction in national supply.

As a result, the market still depends heavily on export demand, port prices and the pace of second crop commercialization to define domestic price direction.

On the international front, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade moved sideways during the week. Favorable U.S. planting progress, good weather conditions and pressure from lower wheat prices contributed to the consolidation movement. Even so, U.S. export sales remain exceptionally strong, with another 1.3 million metric tons sold during the week.

The market is now focused on the USDA supply and demand report scheduled for May 12, which will provide the first projections for the 2026/27 marketing year. Traders expect possible adjustments to current U.S. ending stocks due to the strong export pace, while attention also turns to initial yield projections for the new crop.

U.S. corn planting reached 38% of the estimated area, above the five-year average and matching last year’s pace, when record yields were achieved. Market expectations point to planted area around 95.3 million acres and production potentially reaching 411 million metric tons in 2026/27.

In Brazil, Safras & Mercado reduced its estimate for the second corn crop from 100.5 million to 99 million metric tons, lowering total national production to 140.1 million metric tons.

The consultancy highlighted that Goiás remains the state facing the greatest weather-related losses. Although rainfall during March was favorable, hot and dry conditions in April severely affected crops, especially in southwestern and eastern areas bordering Minas Gerais.

Some rainfall is forecast from mid-May onward, but irreversible losses have already been registered in several regions. Each additional week without rain may intensify damage and reduce yield potential further.

In Minas Gerais, delayed planting caused by excessive rainfall in March has increased concerns. Many fields are expected to enter pollination and tasseling during the second half of May, making rainfall over the coming weeks critical for maintaining production potential.

In São Paulo, crop conditions remain uneven depending on the region. While southern and western areas benefited from recent rains, losses may continue increasing between São José do Rio Preto and Guaíra if dry weather persists.

Meanwhile, Mato Grosso continues showing excellent production potential. Better yields in the state are expected to compensate for part of the losses in the South and Southeast, leading Safras & Mercado to raise its Mato Grosso crop estimate to a record 48.8 million metric tons.

Even with production cuts in Goiás and Minas Gerais, Safras & Mercado still projects Brazil will have approximately 40 million metric tons available for export, with ending stocks above 10 million metric tons.

Under the current balance sheet, the consultancy does not believe losses are sufficient to significantly boost domestic prices before or during the second crop harvest. According to the analysis, stronger exports will be essential to prevent stock accumulation and maintain price support in the interior market.