Porto Alegre, October 15th, 2024 – The October report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Friday (11), caught the market’s attention but did not bring any significant changes in the numbers, having a neutral to bearish tone. US production and stock numbers for the 2024/25 season underwent negligible changes and stood above market expectations. This fact negatively impacted CBOT futures contracts, as lower numbers were expected. The main point is that USDA confirmed that the US soybean crop will be full and record, which should continue to weigh on the market.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop should reach 4.582 bln bushels in 2024/25, equivalent to 124.7.8 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 53.1.2 bushels per acre. The number was above market expectations of 4.572 bln or 124.4 mln tons. In September, the estimate was 4.586 bln bushels or 124.8 mln tons. Yield was estimated at 53.2 bushels per acre.
Final stocks are projected at 550 mln bushels or 14.97 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 542 mln bushels or 14.75 mln tons. There was no change compared to September.
USDA is estimating exports of 1.850 bln bushels (50.35 mln tons) and crushing of 2.425 bln bushels (70 mln tons), repeating the projections of the previous report.
Regarding the global scenario, USDA projected a soybean crop in 2024/25 of 428.9 mln tons. In September, the number was 429.2 mln. For 2023/24, the forecast is 394.71 mln tons.
Ending stocks for 2024/25 are estimated at 134.7 mln tons, above the market forecast of 134.3 mln tons. Last month, the forecast was 134.6 mln tons. Stocks for the 2023/24 season are estimated at 112.4 mln tons. The market was expecting 112.2 mln tons.
For Brazilian production, USDA maintained its estimates at 153 mln tons for 2023/24 and 169 mln for 2024/25. For Argentina, the forecast for 2023/24 was maintained at 48.1 mln. For 2024/25, the estimate is 51 mln tons, unchanged from the previous month.
Chinese imports in 2023/24 were enlarged from 111.5 mln to 112 mln tons. For the next season, the forecast is 109 mln tons, repeating the previous month.
Safras News