Porto Alegre, September 30th, 2024 – Data from Unica’s most recent fortnightly report, related to the first half of September, show an expected and natural seasonal decline in cane crushing and in the production of derivatives. This decline stems from the distance between the current crop level and its production peak, which occurred between the second half of July and the first one of August. Therefore, the current levels of decline in the margin (against the immediately preceding fortnight), seen in the report for the first half of September, are nothing more than a seasonal distancing of the crop from its production peak and the consequent progress toward its end.
In a way, it is even surprising that the first half of September did not bring more significant effects of a decline in cane crushing, due to losses from the fires, even though 80% of the cane affected by the fires is still being reaped, with average losses of 10% to 15% in TRS levels. It is in this context that SAFRAS & Mercado points to a 6.2% decline in cane crushing in the margin, a 5.1% fall in sugar production, a 6.4% decrease in anhydrous ethanol production, and another of only 1.4% in hydrated ethanol production.
In this sense, Unica states, in the textual part of its report, that the use of cane for sugar production has been hampered by losses in its quality, which makes ethanol production to be prioritized. Also in the textual part of Unica’s report, we can see that it points to the effects of the prolonged drought and fires as factors that reduce cane sucrose levels. Therefore, what SAFRAS & Mercado warns about these statements made by the entity in its own report is that, besides the Center-South having less cane than in the previous season (estimate made by SAFRAS & Mercado of 654 versus 588 mln tons for the region), this cane has already lost quality, which practically doubles the negative impact on sugar production.
It is in this sense that SAFRAS & Mercado contextualizes the recent data, which, besides the 5.15% decline in the margin (compared to the immediately preceding fortnight), there is only a slight increase, bordering on stability, of 0.23%, in the fortnightly sugar production data for the first half of September compared to the same period of the previous year. In the annual accumulated volume, between the second half of August and the first half of September, the growth in production volume fell from +4.09% to +3.68%, which reflects a decline of just over 5% in the margin seen now in the first half of September.
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