The Brazilian domestic physical market remains highly valued and close to its highs. Producers have been a little more active, taking advantage of the good market moment, but without rushing and just managing opportunities. Good cup from southern Minas Gerais is pegged at around BRL 1,440 a 60-kg bag (USD 256 a bag), which represents a nominal appreciation of 73% over the BRL 830 paid per bag in the same period last year. This scenario can also be extended to positions with future crops. The idea for forward prices for Brazil’s 2025 crop is around BRL 1,385 to BRL 1,395 a bag (USD 246 a bag) for delivery and payment in September/25. Although lower than in the physicals, it remains very attractive to sellers.
Conillon type 7/8 in Colatina is pegged at around BRL 1,420 a bag (USD 252 a bag). The current price is more than double that of the same period last year, when it was trading at BRL 620 a bag. This scenario is even more favorable than that of arabica, which has attracted more sellers to the market.
The analysis based on the exchange ratio reinforces the positive moment for coffee sellers. Based on the Safras fertilizer report, 2 bags of coffee are currently needed to buy one ton of urea. In the same period last year, producers would need 3.4 bags. For MAP, the ratio is 2.7 bags, against 4.3 bags last year. Finally, in the case of KCl, 1.7 coffee bags are needed. Last year, producers would need 3.1 bags of coffee to buy one ton of fertilizer. This is a clearly favorable exchange rate, which reinforces the positive moment for coffee.