Porto Alegre, August 22th, 2024 – The figures on Brazilian pork exports were quite positive in July, with increases in the volume shipped, average price per ton, and revenue, which brings optimism to the sector, considering the reduction in domestic availability and the growth in industry margins, factors that favor the dynamics of business in the interior of the country and the formation of prices throughout the chain.
In July, Brazil exported 130.325 thousand tons (fresh + processed), according to data compiled by SAFRAS, an increase of 28.38% compared to the 101.514 thousand tons registered in the same month last year. The first information that caught attention about the volume is that the Philippines was the largest importer in July, surpassing China. The increase in purchases by the Philippines was already expected due to the strengthening of negotiations, the opening of new plants, and the need for purchases from the Asian country due to the deficit in local supply. It is worth noting that the Philippines has not yet managed to recover its production, after a sharp decline in 2020 due to African swine fever. In July, 25.631 thousand tons were exported to the Philippines.
Another positive factor is that Brazil diversified its sales, reducing the risk of concentrating exports to a large market, as was the case for several years, such as Russia in the last decade and China in recent years. Thus, specific events and declines in purchases by some players have a lower impact on the dynamics of the Brazilian domestic market. Brazil managed to export more than 10 thousand tons to 6 different countries in July, which was not the case until recently.
The second-largest importer over the month was China, with 19.741 thousand tons. The Chinese continue to make low purchases on the global market and pay low prices per ton, USD 2,147. Production in China is falling and is expected to continue so in 2025. However, consumption is being impacted by the economic slowdown and weak household confidence. Consumption is falling at a faster rate than production, thus reducing the need for imports. The progress of the Chinese economy, its credit situation, overcoming the real estate crisis and reducing risks in various sectors will be crucial for consumption in the country and subsequently for greater momentum in imports by China until the end of this year and in 2025. Meanwhile, the pork supply in China will continue to adjust, which is positive and a factor to be monitored.
In third place in July is Japan, with 11.289 thousand tons. Until May, the Japanese had been buying around 5 thousand tons, and in the last two months they have practically doubled the level of purchases. As is well known, Japan is quite demanding in terms of quality, which Brazil is able to meet, and as a result the country pays excellent prices, well above the Philippines and China, for example. The average price paid per ton by the Japanese was USD 3,331. The Philippines paid an average of USD 2,355 per ton in July.
Singapore came in fourth place, with 11.247 thousand tons, Chile in fifth with 10.469 thousand tons, and Hong Kong in sixth with 10,352 thousand tons.
The average price per ton exported by Brazil in July was USD 2,317, the highest level of the year and the best price since July/23, when it was at USD 2,435. On the other hand, in the last 12 months, the dollar has appreciated strongly against the real, so in direct conversion, the price per ton was BRL 12,844, the highest level since December/22, when it was BRL 13,029. The dollar, which reached BRL 5.85 in early August, closed last Thursday below BRL 5.50, which is still favorable for the attractiveness of Brazilian pork in the international market. Total revenue in July was USD 302.075 mln, the highest level in 2024.
In January-July 2024, Brazilian exports reached 717.495 thousand tons, an increase of 5.55% compared to the 679.754 thousand tons in the same period in 2023. Revenue hit USD 1.578 bln in the first 7 months of 2024, a decrease of 4.00% compared to the USD 1.644 bln in the same period last year, highlighting that the prices per ton have begun to show greater appreciation in the last two months. Therefore, the trend is for total revenue in 2024 to exceed that of 2023 by the end of the year.