Porto Alegre, August 22th, 2024 – After reestablishing its normal trading flow with its main chicken meat importers, it can be said that the Newcastle case in Rio Grande do Sul was just a detour; the result of Brazilian chicken meat exports should be quite positive, with a new export record ahead. Only Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the consequences of the disease, but the expectation is that it will not take long for the state to return to normal in terms of exports.
Brazil is still the best global alternative for chicken meat supply, as for other proteins of animal origin Brazil has advantages compared to our competitors, offering a very positive outlook in terms of exports. Even the prices paid for proteins of animal origin have shown signs of improvement.
In the current season, around 2.98 mln tons have already been exported, with a quantity of product exported basically similar to the same period last year (January to July). Brazil is expected to surpass the 5-mln-ton mark once again, with well-distributed sales, supplying quality chicken meat to more than one hundred countries. It is worth noting that exchange rate movements still favor Brazilian exports of animal proteins; the dollar above BRL 5.40 still offers an excellent conversion rate and great competitiveness for Brazilian products. The geopolitical context is still fraught with uncertainty (elections in the United States, conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea Region), in addition to the fiscal problems that are still present in Brazil. All of this context makes a more aggressive exchange rate appreciation process unfeasible in the country, even with the expectation of an interest rate cut in the United States. Brazil still has good domestic conditions in terms of consumption of animal proteins. New job creation is still present, with only 6.9% of the Brazilian population unemployed. With employment at an excellent level, it is most likely that the impact of the thirteenth salary will be greater within the economy. For some sources linked to the retail sector, this will be the best end of the year in terms of consumption of the decade.
For chicken farming, the warning is that demand indicators are excellent, however, the sector cannot exaggerate, with housing above market needs. In this case, supply should be properly adjusted, as has been the case for much of the current season, avoiding situations of excess supply that bring losses to the sector, exactly what was observed last season at certain times