Porto Alegre, August 5th, 2024 – The soybean planting intention in Argentina in the 2024/25 season is estimated at 18.2 mln hectares, according to data from Safras & Mercado, growing by almost 1 mln hectares over the current season. The main reason for the increase in the area would be the producers’ reduced willingness to plant corn, due to pest outbreak, turning to a greater extent to soybeans and a lesser extent to sorghum and sunseed. If this estimate is confirmed, it would be the largest area planted with soybeans since the 2015/16 season.
Regarding yield, the results achieved in the current season (2023/24) were quite positive. As a result, the first projection for yield in 2024/25 is only 3% higher, rising from 2,961 to 3,055 kg/ha.
The expected soybean production for the 2024/25 season is 55.3 mln tons, an increase of nearly 11% compared to the 2023/24 season.
It is important to remember that soybean planting in Argentina begins between late October and early November and continues until the end of January. The final planting number will be closely linked to the weather, which will encourage early corn planting or not. If there is no timely rain for early corn sowing, which begins in September and continues until early December, producers, instead of resorting to late corn, will likely opt for soybeans. Turning to the climate, models for Argentina forecast the occurrence of a new La Niña next season (2024/25), although it is not expected to have the same intensity as the La Niña that occurred in the 2022/23 season, when the country experienced severe drought in the main growing regions, which caused a major production decline in the soybean output.
The productive potential of the new Argentine crop points to the possibility of reaping the third-largest crop in the country’s history should the currently estimated area be confirmed and the weather favorable.
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