Porto Alegre, July 30th, 2024 – The week was positive for prices and business in the Brazilian soybean market. The combination of appreciation of futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and new highs in the dollar against the real – besides the firmness of premiums – ensured the rise in prices and the return of producers to the market, accelerating trading.
In Passo Fundo (RS), the 60-kilogram bag rose from BRL 133.00 to BRL 135.00; and in Cascavel (PR), from BRL 130.00 to BRL 132.00. In Rondonópolis (MT), prices remained at BRL 127.00. In Paranaguá, in the port, the bag increased from BRL 139.00 to BRL 141.
In terms of exports, the movement improved mainly with the new crop, for shipments between April and May, with the presence of Chinese buyers. Export premiums remain firm.
On the CBOT, contracts for delivery in November closed Friday (26) quoted at USD 10.48 per bushel, accumulating a weekly appreciation of 1.16%. The week was one of recovery, with a strong movement of covering short positions between Monday and Thursday. On Friday, the market had a very negative session, erasing most of the accumulated gains.
The weather issue continues to be the center of attention. Bulletins indicate high temperatures and drier weather at the beginning of August, which could harm the productive potential of the US crop. It is worth remembering that August is a critical month for determining the size of production in the United States. However, it is worth noting that so far the crops are developing without major problems.
Another factor that helped sustain futures contracts was the lower risk aversion in the financial market. The expectation that interest rates will be cut in the United States from September is helping agricultural commodities. There is also the issue of the US elections. Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race has put Donald Trump’s favoritism in check. With Kamala Harris, the dispute promises to be more intense. The Republican brings to the market memories of his previous administration, marked by the trade war with China, the country that is the world’s largest buyer of soybeans.
In the exchange rate, the dollar remains firm against the real, contributing greatly to improved conditions in the domestic soybean market. The US currency closed Friday (26) at BRL 5.6574, with an increase of 0.94% in the period.
Copyright 2024 – Grupo CMA