Porto Alegre, February 13, 2023 – While the international market is tense with Argentina and Ukraine, the losses in Rio Grande do Sul, record exports, and the worst stocks since 2016 do not seem to affect the Brazilian domestic market. Meanwhile, exporters have resurfaced. Now, no longer through the ports of a large part of the country, but through Rio Grande, a region with a crop failure and always with a continuous supply issue. Consumers, once again, to lower prices as much as possible during the harvest, are offering space for exporters to carry out their accounts, purchases and shipments without any problems. If prices rise, it is certainly not corn growers or exporters who are responsible.
The harvest in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina goes on, there is still some selling pressure due to space or cash, and liquidity is emerging again in exports. The port that now has this space for these corn shipments is Rio Grande, and deals are taking place at BRL 94/95 at the port for shipments in February/March, perhaps April. So, the state will sell what it needs now, and when the soybean harvest and shipments advance, it will stop selling corn for domestic and/or external markets.
In other regions, the soybean harvest is beginning to advance, freight rates are increasing, and corn flow limitations are becoming more restricted. However, growers still want to sell corn, whose prices can sharply rise in the coming few days, to hold soybeans, which have a downward bias despite all problems faced by Argentina thus far.
Exports for 2022 closed at 46.6 mln tons according to the revised data by Secex. Iran and Japan are the two main importers of Brazilian corn, followed by Spain, Egypt and Colombia. China entered the Brazilian market at the end of the year but quickly bought 2.1 mln tons and became the eighth-largest buyer of Brazilian corn in 2022. For the 2023 cycle, Europe may be an indicator of the stabilization or decline of these exports, as it tends to plant a new crop, with chances of recovering its supply and being less dependent on imports. Spain set record purchases this year, with 4.9 mln tons of Brazilian corn.
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