Brazil’s 2022 coffee crop generates a lot of uncertainty and discussions. There is great difficulty in quantifying the crop in a very erratic production year in Brazil, marked by drought, frost, showy blossoming followed by plant abortion, excess moisture during the graining period and less rain afterward. Of course, all this ends up interfering with expectations about the size of the crop, generating moments of a certain optimism as opposed to others of total pessimism. The fact is that the harvest has already ended, but doubts remain. The delayed post-harvest work and slower processing help to explain the low physical availability. And this raises doubts as to whether the current low availability is really just the effect of the lower production or can be partially justified by the delay in the cycle and even the more withdrawn posture of sellers.
SAFRAS corrected Brazil’s 2022 crop number downward. Arabica crops apparently should deliver less than initially expected, so the projection was revised to 35.20 million bags, against 38.80 million bags forecast at the beginning of the season. Regions such as southern Minas Gerais and Mogiana suffered from cold and drought, but where the situation was more critical is the Cerrado region. Crops that faced very low temperatures are producing less than expected. There is also the complaint that coffee has grown well with the rains at the beginning of the year, but the grains are less heavy, perhaps due to the effect of the abrupt decrease in moisture from March onward.
On the other hand, conillon production was above what was initially expected. So, it was corrected to 23 million bags. Thus, Brazilian production is projected at 58.20 million bags, against 61.10 million bags preliminarily. It is pointed out that the picture is still very open, with more delay about the expected production, possibly from late September to early October, after overcoming this first stage of sales in advance.